July Price Increase Matches Boom Levels

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Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 3.8 percent in July 2012 compared to July 2011. This was the biggest year-over-year increase since August 2006.

CoreLogic recently reported that on a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.3 percent in July 2012 compared to June 2012. The July 2012 figures mark the fifth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 4.3 percent in July 2012 compared to July 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1.7 percent in July 2012 compared to June 2012, also the fifth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that August home prices, including distressed sales, will rise by 4.6 percent on a year-over-year basis from August 2011 and at least 0.6 percent on a month-over-month basis from July 2012. Excluding distressed sales, August house prices are also poised to rise 6.0 percent year-over-year from August 2011 and by 1.3 percent month-over-month from July 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes in the most recent month.

“The housing market continues its positive trajectory with significant price gains in July and our expectation of a further increase in August,” says Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “While the pace of growth is moderating as we transition to the off-season for home buying, we expect a positive gain in price levels for the full year.”

“It’s been six years since the housing market last experienced the gains that we saw in July, with indications the summer will finish up on a strong note,” says Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Although we expect some slowing in price gains over the balance of 2012, we are clearly seeing the light at the end of a very long tunnel.”

Highlights as of July 2012:

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Arizona (+16.6 percent), Idaho (10.0 percent), Utah (+9.3 percent), South Dakota (+8.3 percent) and Colorado (+7.3 percent).

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Delaware (-4.8 percent), Alabama (-4.6 percent), Rhode Island (-2.2 percent), Connecticut (-1.7 percent) and Illinois (-1.7 percent).

• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: Arizona (+11.3 percent), Utah (+10.5 percent), Montana (+9.1 percent), South Dakota (+8.6 percent) and North Dakota (+6.9 percent).

• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Delaware (-3.5 percent), Alabama (-2.4 percent), New Jersey (-1.2 percent), West Virginia (-0.5 percent) and Connecticut (-0.2 percent).

• Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to July 2012) was -27.2 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -20.2 percent.

• The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines including distressed transactions are Nevada (-56.0 percent), Florida (-44.2 percent), Arizona (-42.8 percent), California (-38.0 percent) and Michigan (-37.4 percent).

• Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 23 are showing year-over-year declines in July, four fewer than in June.

For more information, visit www.realestateeconomywatch.com.